At present, India is home to five megacities, with over 10 million population, but by 2030 this number will go up to seven. Delhi will continue to be the second-most populous city in the world till 2030, adding a staggering 9.6 million people to its population — the most in any megacity.The facts have been revealed in the 2016 World Cities Report issued by the UN’s department of economic and social affairs. According to the final report of the technical group on population projections dated July 2020, (constituted by the National Commission on Population (NCP) under the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare with the mandate to provide population projections for the period 2011 to 2036), India’s urban population will increase from 377 million in 2011 to 594 million in 2036 – a growth of 57%. While 31% of Indians were living in urban India in 2011, that will grow to 39% by 2036.The proportion of the rural population will decline from 69% to 61% as the urban population is projected to increase more than twice the projected increase in the rural population. The state of Delhi, which was 98% urban in 2011, will be 100% urban by 2036. In addition, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Maharashtra, Telangana and Gujarat will all be more than 50% urban, the report predicts. The states of Himachal Pradesh, Assam and Bihar will continue to be less than 20% urban.
Urban planning capacity
NITI Aayog’s report on measures to ramp up urban planning capacity in India, recommended a set of short to long term interventions that can create an enabling environment for planning in India. The report stated that 65 per cent of the 7,933 urban settlements do not have any master plan and laid importance on the ‘master plans’, which will be instrumental for guiding and regulating the development of cities for managing urbanisation as well as ‘spatial sustainability’. The proposed central sector scheme ‘500 healthy cities programme’ for a period of five years is intended to integrate the planning of cities with public health and ensure a healthy city for all by 2030.
On the demand-supply aspects of the work force, the report has estimated a need of about 12,000 planners. As of now, not even one planner is available per city or town in the States’ town and country planning departments (only 3,945 sanctioned posts of town planners, of which 42 per cent are lying vacant). The report also added the lack of synergy between urban and rural planning and development. It stated that the ‘State Town and country planning acts’ need to be revisited to harmonise the two. India is observing an unparalleled rate of urbanisation and it is crucial to acknowledge that our country’s journey to becoming a highly productive nation depend on its engines of economic growth; our cities. NITI Aayog recommends that concerted and immediate actions are required to build capacities to plan for India’s urbanisation.
Components of development
Urbanisation is gaining momentum and cities play a crucial role in development and act as engines of growth for the country. It is estimated that more than 50% of India’s population will be living in cities by 2050. Most cities in India are expanding at a rapid pace and the steady mushrooming of urban clusters demand new innovative transit systems, which will be the future of mobility in cities across India.
The sustainable development of all urban centres largely depends upon their physical, social and institutional infrastructure. Urban Transport is an important component of urban infrastructure. The rapidly growing urban population also calls for a systematic approach to plan cities with comprehensive mobility plans, optimal land use and proper transport infrastructure thereby ensuring all aspects of road safety, intelligent transport systems, promotion of non-motorised systems like cycle-tracks and walkways.
Populated states
Uttar Pradesh is the most populated state in India. The top 5 populated states are Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, Bihar, West Bengal, and Madhya Pradesh. In 2011 Maharashtra is at 2nd Spot, but Bihar with a higher growth rate (approx 20%) is very close to Maharashtra by 2023-24 it will be at the second spot. Almost half of the country’s population lives in these five highest populous states & the Ten most populated states of India contribute 74% of India’s population. Bihar has the highest population growth rate during this decade followed by Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan.
Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS) (October – December 2020)
Unemployment rate for all ages in urban areas rose to 10.3 per cent in October-December 2020 as compared to 7.9 per cent in the corresponding months a year ago, showed a periodic labour force survey by the National Statistical Office (NSO). Joblessness or unemployment rate (UR) is defined as the percentage of unemployed persons in the labour force. The UR for all ages in urban areas was 13.3 per cent in July-September 2020, the ninth Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS) showed. As per the survey, labour force participation rate for all ages in urban areas was 37.3 per cent in October-December quarter of 2020, up from 37.2 per cent in the same period a year ago. It was 37 per cent in July-September 2020.
Schemes for Urban
Urban development is a state subject and formulation of urban development programmes and is done by state planning commissions or boards. Urban planning has to be done by the urban local bodies which comprise municipal corporations, municipalities and nagar panchayats commonly known as ULBs supported by the state government Five Year Plans in urban development.The Mega city scheme was introduced in 1993-94 during the Eighth plan, to cover five mega cities of Mumbai, Calcutta, Chennai, Bangalore and Hyderabad. Also IDSMT scheme was revamped through it infrastructural development programs for boosting employment generation for diverting migration from big cities to the small and medium towns.
The Ninth plan, continued with the schemes of the eighth plan and also emphasized on decentralisation and financial autonomy of urban local bodies. A new program called Swarna jayanti Shahari Rozgar yojna (SJSRY) was started in 1997 with two sub plan– 1. Urban self-employment program and 2. Urban wage employment programme, i.e. targeting for urban poverty reduction and employment. It was revamped in 2013 and introduced as National Urban Livelihood Mission (NULM).
The Tenth plan (2002-07) recognized the fact that urbanisation played a key role in accelerating the economic growth in 1980s and 1990s as a result of the economic liberalisation and also stressed that without strengthening the urban local bodies, the goal of urbanisation cannot be achieved.
The Eleventh plan (2007-2012) introduced some innovative changes through capacity building, increasing the efficiency and productivity of the cities, dismantling the monopoly of public sector over urban infrastructure, using technology as a tool for rapid urbanisation.
The twelfth five-year plan (2012-2017) proposed to consolidate JNNURM and envisaged its wider role in urban reforms. During twelfth plan, the components of JNNURM were: Urban infrastructure governance(UIG), Rajiv Awas Yojana (RAY), Slum rehabilitation in cities not covered under RAY, Capacity building. The plan has also highlighted the reasons which are acting as hurdles in the success of the program as, failure to mainstream the urban planning, incomplete reform and slow progress in project implementation, delay in securing land for projects, delay in getting approval from various regulators etc.
Atal Mission For Rejuvenation Andurban Transformation (Amrut) : The purpose of Atal Mission for Rejuvenation and Urban Transformation (AMRUT)is to (i) ensure that every household has access to a tap with assured supply of water and a sewerage connection; (ii) increase the amenity value of cities by developing greenery and well maintained open spaces (e.g. parks); and (iii) reduce pollution by switching to public transport or constructing facilities for non-motorized transport.
The target AMRUT is to provide 139 lakh water tap connections to achieve universal coverageand 145 lakh sewer connections to enhance substantial sewerage network coverage. So far 95 lakh tap connections and 59 lakh sewer connections including HH covered under septage management have been provided, of this 30 lakh tap connections and 17 lakh sewer connections have been provided in the year 2020. So far, 80 lakh conventional streetlights have been replaced under the mission, with energy efficient LED. Of these, 13 lakh streetlights have been replaced during 2020. As per MOUD portal, more than 160 such Water Supply projects already achieved 90% or above progress and on cecompleted these are targeted to benefit 40 lakh beneficiaries. Similarly, more than 80 such Sewerage projects have made progress of 90% or more and once complete these are targeted to benefit 17 lakh beneficiaries.
SMART CITIES MISSION : The development of Smart Cities Mission is to promote cities that provide core urban infrastructure and give a decent quality of life to its citizens, a clean and sustainable environment and the application of ‘Smart Solutions’ to improve the quality of life. Significant progress has been made with respect to implementation of projects pertaining to Integrated Command and Control Centres, Smart Roads, Smart Water, Solar Rooftops, and Vibrant Public Spaces etc.
DEENDAYAL ANTYODAYA YOJANA-NATIONALURBAN LIV ELIHOODS MISSION (DAY-NULM) : Mission is for reducing the poverty and vulnerability of urban poor households since September, 2013. Under Mission’s covid initiatives, round 50 thousand Self-Help Groups ( SHG) have prepared and supplied about 7 Crore Masks, over 3 lakh liters of Sanitizer and 2 lakh PPE kits. Free 3 meals a day in Shelters for Urban Homeless to over 1 lakh homeless, including migrants during lockdowns. SHGs organized community kitchens in 14 States to provide food to about 60 thousand persons each day during lockdowns.
Multiple levels of urbanisation
India has the world’s second largest urban systems. According to Census 2011, India’s urban system consists of 7933 cities and towns of different population sizes, and a population of 377.16 million. a study by McKinsey Global Institute study estimates that 180 million rural people live next to India’s 70 largest urban centres, a number that will increase to about 210 million by 2030. UN estimates that much of the population increase in India between 2015 and 2030 will take place in urban areas during which it will add 164 million people to its urban base.
• With just about 31 percent, urban India ranks low in global urban hierarchy. But this is attributed to the fact that Census of India designates a settlement as urban when it fulfils the criteria such as a minimum population of 5,000 persons; at least 75 percent of the male working force engaged in non-agricultural activities; and a density of population of at least 400 persons per sq. km., and that all settlements which have a statutory recognition. Where as in countries like China, Brazil, Indonesia and Mexico the criteria for considering as urban settlement is usually fewer.
• India’s pace of urban population growth is moderate. Between 2001–11 urban population increased at an Annual Exponential Growth Rate (AEGR) of 2.76 percent, reversing the declining trend in the AEGR observed over the census decades of 1981–91 and 1991–2001 (Table 1). The AEGR is expected to range between 2.3 and 2.5 percent over the next two decades (United Nations, 2011).
• India’s urbanisation has undergone an important shift, which is characterized by (i) increasing number and rising population of metropolitan cities, and (ii) unprecedented rise in the number and population of census towns.
• India’s urbanisation is driven largely by high fertility rates, which accounts for 55–60 percent of the net increase in urban population, and reclassification of rural settlements into urban. Rural-urban migration constitutes an estimated 20–22 percent of urban population growth.
Urbanisation is central to India’s economy. It contributes close to 65 percent to its Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Recent studies indicate increasing linkages between urbanisation and percapita GDP. The contribution of urban economy to India’s GDP has increased from 29 percent in 1950–51 to an estimated 60 percent in 2011. Sex ratio in urban areas in India is 926 in Census 2011. It has registered an increase of 26 points over the sex ratio in 2001 Census. The UAs, where population of females exceeds the total male population in this group are Kannur UA (Kerala) at the top with 1168. Surat UA (Gujarat) is at the bottom of the list with sex ratio at 754 where males outnumber females.
Literacy rate
As per the 2018 National Statistical Office (NSO) report, rural areas had 73.5 per cent literacy rate while in urban areas, the literacy rate was reported at 87.7 per cent. With 96.2 per cent literacy, Kerala has once again emerged as the most literate state in the country, while Andhra Pradesh featured at the bottom with a rate of 66.4 per cent. As the population increases, demand for the key services such as transportation, water, sewage treatment, and low income housing will increase five to sevenfold in cities of every size and type. But despite these challenges, urbanisation is an opportunity for furthering economic development and provision of quality of life. Among various urban services, urban transport is a very important service for overall development of the country.
Water resources
According to a recent UNICEF report, almost 20 percent of urban Indians do not have facilities with water and soap at home, inorder to take precaution against pandemic. The target of achieving the 139 lakh water tap connections under the ATAL mission, so far 64.99 lakh tap connections were provided and out of this 16.41 lakh tap connections have been provided in the year 2019.
India faces several challenges on water resources due to climate change, says a new study by WaterAid, a global advocacy group on water and sanitation. India is followed by Ethiopia with over 60 million people without clean water. Nigeria ranks third with over 59 million people without safe water. According to government data, the average annual per capita water availability fell 15% between 2001-2011. India’s per capita water availability is estimated to further decline to 1,465 cubic meter by 2025, a top official of agri-research body ICAR said on Thursday as he stressed on the need to use technology and crop diversification to reduce water consumption. It’s predicted to fall another 13% by 2025 and 15% again by 2050, which means that in another 30 years each Indian household will have about 1.1 million liters of water per year, down from 1.8 million liters in 2011. (A country is considered to be suffering from water scarcity when availability is less than 1 million liters per capita per year.)
Pollution problems
Pollution is one major problem when it comes to water scarcity. According to the 2019 report of NITI Ayog on groundwater level says 21 Indian cities including Delhi, Bengaluru, Chennai, and Hyderabad – will run out of groundwater by 2020, affecting around 100 million people. It also says that 40 percent of India’s population will have no access to drinking water by 2030.
Earlier, the Composite Water Management Index developed by Niti Aayog found that , 70% of the water resources of the country are polluted. What emerges from the early assessment is that States such as Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Maharashtra, Punjab and Telangana have initiated reforms for judicious water use, while populous ones such as Uttar Pradesh and Bihar have failed to respond to the challenge. Tamil Nadu, which has a middling score, does well on augmentation of water sources, but is abysmally poor in ensuring sustainable use for farming. The trends that the data reflect of high to extreme stress faced by 600 million people call for speedy reforms.
All water bodies in India within or near populated areas are contaminated with organic and hazardous pollutants. Bengaluru’s Bellandur Lake is a case in point. The water body is so toxic that methane fires regularly break out on its surface. Due to such pollution levels, not a single Indian city can provide clean tap water throughout the day. Even the groundwater situation is dismal. A lack of proper wastewater treatment that is spewed from domestic and industrial sources has led to progressive contamination of groundwater posing health risks to those who depend upon it for their daily use.
Ground Water shortage
Twenty one cities in India including Delhi, Bengaluru, Chennai and Hyderabad – will run out of groundwater by 2020, affecting around 100 million people, claims a report by NITI Ayog. 40 per cent of India’s population will have no access to drinking water by 2030.The situation is alarming, given the fact that year 2020 is not very far. Three rivers, four water bodies, five wetlands and six forests have completely dried in Chennai despite having better water resources and rains than any other metro cities.
( Note : This article on Urban India is published in the Yearbook plus 2022, in page number 754. Due to technical error, some paragraphs of the article is seen missing in the book, as hidden under the photograph in page no 755. As this will create confusion for reading, here the same article is given with the missing text. )